Bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream     

Richard C. Chiverrell  Ian M. Thrasher  Geoffrey S. P. Thomas  Andreas Lang  James D. Scourse  Katrien J. J. van Landeghem  Danny Mccarroll  Chris D. Clark  Colm Ó Cofaigh  David J. A. Evans  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):200-209

We present an 8000‐year history spanning 650 km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine‐terminating ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. Bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.0–25.3 ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.3–24.5 ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea‐level rise, mega‐tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (～550 m a^?1) that slowed (～100 m a^?1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (～200 m a^?1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer‐term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice‐marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present‐day ice streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

纵向和横向同时约束AVO反演          下载免费PDF全文

霍国栋  杜启振  王秀玲  陈刚  郑笑雪 《地球物理学报》2017,60(1):271-282

为了提高AVO(amplitude versus offset)反演结果的精度和横向连续性,本文提出了一种新的AVO反演约束方法,该方法结合贝叶斯原理和卡尔曼滤波算法实现了对反演参数纵向和横向的同时约束.文章首先结合反演参数的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束和反演参数的横向连续性假设建立了与卡尔曼滤波算法对应的AVO反演系统的数学模型,然后将该数学模型代入卡尔曼滤波算法框架,利用卡尔曼滤波算法实现了双向约束AVO反演.二维模型测试和实际数据测试结果表明,相对于单纯的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束,双向约束能更准确地刻画参数的横向变化,得到更准确、横向连续性更好的反演结果.  相似文献   

基于地质统计先验信息的储层物性参数同步反演   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

印兴耀  孙瑞莹  王保丽  张广智 《应用地球物理》2014,11(3):311-320

本文提出的储层物性参数同步反演是一种高分辨率的非线性反演方法,该方法综合利用岩石物理和地质统计先验信息,在贝叶斯理论框架下,首先通过变差结构分析得到合理的变差函数,进而利用快速傅里叶滑动平均模拟算法（Fast Fourier TransformMoving Average,FFT-MA）和逐渐变形算法（Gradual Deformation Method,GDM）得到基于地质统计学的储层物性参数先验信息,然后根据统计岩石物理模型建立弹性参数与储层物性参数之间的关系,构建似然函数,最终利用Metropolis算法实现后验概率密度的抽样,得到物性参数反演结果。并将此方法处理了中国陆上探区的一块实际资料,本方法的反演结果具有较高的分辨率,与测井数据吻合度较高;由于可以直接反演储层物性参数,避免了误差的累积,大大减少了不确定性的传递,且计算效率较高。  相似文献   

贝叶斯网络在水资源管理中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

卢文喜  罗建男  鲍新华 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2011,41(1):153-158

为了解决水资源管理中具有不确定性的多目标决策问题,将贝叶斯网络方法引入水资源管理中。通过对实例系统中变量间相互关系的分析,构建描述变量间不确定性关系的贝叶斯网络模型,其中包括表示其依赖关系的有向无环图和表示其具体概率依赖程度的条件概率表,并在6个目标变量均达到预期目标的前提下进行概率推理。实例结果表明：当补偿款数额增加到500元/亩时,所有的目标变量均可达到最优,因此确定出政府应给农民补偿款的数额为500元/亩的合理水资源决策方案。贝叶斯网络以图模型的方式直观地表达了实例系统中变量之间的不确定性关系,概率推理的结果兼顾了环境效益以及农民的利益,使多个预期目标均达到了最优,有效地解决了水资源管理中具有不确定性的多目标决策问题。  相似文献   

生态系统服务研究动态及地理学研究范式   总被引：20，自引：2，他引：18  

李双成  刘金龙  张才玉  赵志强 《地理学报》2011,66(12):1618-1630

生态系统服务是目前国际上相关研究热点之一.本文综述了国内外生态系统服务研究的进展、存在问题和发展趋势.在此基础上,针对目前生态系统服务研究生态学范式存在的问题,提出了地理学在此领域的研究范式和优先主题.研究认为,从地理学视角研究生态系统服务,应当以空间异质性和区域差异作为切入点,紧紧围绕生态系统结构与功能-生态系统服务-人类社会福祉这一主线,始终将"自然系统提供生态服务与社会经济系统内化消费"之间的耦合联系作为研究核心,综合集成分析社会经济系统对自然资本内化的响应.通过建构生态系统服务的地理学研究范式,不仅可以拓展生态系统服务研究的深度和广度,而且有助于提升自然和社会经济系统的集成分析水平,进而推动地理学综合研究进程.同时,也为地理学的核心命题--人地关系研究提供重要的实践领域.  相似文献   

协同多源遥感数据的北亚热带森林蓄积量贝叶斯分层估测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林文科  陆亚刚  蒋先蝶  李桂英  李登秋  陆灯盛 《遥感学报》2022,26(3):468-479

精确估算森林蓄积量是国家实现2060年前碳中和目标的迫切需求,而基于遥感的森林蓄积量定量反演是当前遥感应用领域面临的重要挑战和研究热点.光学遥感数据由于无法获取森林高度信息并存在信号饱和问题,反演森林蓄积量的精度较低,而机载Lidar数据能获取高度信息,但成本高、观测范围有限.本研究利用Sentinel-2多光谱、资源...  相似文献   

An evaluation of the health status of the Lavaca Bay, Texas ecosystem using Crassostrea virginica as the sentinel species     

Wesley Bissett Jr.  Roger Smith  Robert Field  Tim Phillips  Terry Wade  James A. Thompson 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(2):280-286

Locational risks for compromised ecosystem health for the eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) harvested from Lavaca Bay, Texas were estimated. Flow cytometric evaluation of variations in DNA content and the lysosomal destabilization assay were used for evaluation of genotoxicity and stress, respectively. Bayesian geo-statistical methods were utilized to estimate and evaluate spatial effects. For models with spatial risks, continuous surface maps of predicted parameter values were created to evaluate risk location. Lysosomal destabilization assay results were spatially oriented whereas flow cytometry results were fit best with the random effects model. While not spatially oriented, the highest levels of variations in DNA content were also present near industrial facilities. Locational risks of increased biomarkers of genotoxicity and stress in the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) were increased with proximity to industrial facilities  相似文献   

Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Trond Reitan  Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):627-642

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.  相似文献   

利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险     

丘文洋  李连发  张杰昊  王劲峰 《地球信息科学学报》2017,19(8):1036-1048

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,以往的研究表明该疾病与气象、环境和社会经济等因素相关联,其影响关系复杂,而疾病本身体现出较强的区域聚集性,采用普通的线性风险建模方法无法捕捉影响因素的复杂性及空间聚集性。因此,本文以山东省为例,在前人研究的基础上,提出了采用贝叶斯网络综合风险建模方法研究手足口病的发病风险与气象、土地利用、社会经济及空气污染等要素间的关系,并通过引入空间扫描统计聚集结果,将空间聚集引入到贝叶斯网络模型加强其空间推理功能,减少模型的偏差,提高评估的精度。结果表明,本文建立的手足口病空间贝叶斯网络风险模型具有较高的估计效果,引入的空间聚集性较好地融入到贝叶斯概率推理模型中,合理建立预测因子同手足口病发病风险之间的关系。通过对建模结果的解译,分析了手足口病的发病风险影响因素,特别是气候、社会经济及空气污染的影响。本文的空间贝叶斯建模方法及研究结果对手足口病暴发的防控预警具有重要的意义。  相似文献   

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Output Using Generalized Additive Models and Bayesian Model Averaging   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

YANG Chi  YAN Zhongwei  SHAO Yuehong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(1):1-12

A probabilistic precipitation forecasting model using generalized additive models (GAMs) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed in this paper.GAMs were used to fit the spatial-temporal precipi...  相似文献